Well for the second year in a row the 2007 Hurricane season predictions failed to fulfill expectations. I don't know why they are so surprised that the public may lose confidence in them, when you try to scare people and and are crying wolf, we know how the end of the fable turns out. I hope this humbles some scientists because it seems they think they believe they are always right.
The original prediction is as follows: "NOAA is predicting a very high likelihood (85% chance) of an above-normal 2007 Atlantic hurricane season, a 10% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 5% chance of a below-normal season . . .". So they predicted a 5% chance of a below normal season, and that's what happened. Further reading of the article states that in May they were only predicting 75% and updated it to 85% in August. They could have been more accurate if they used a dart board for their predictions. Here are some of the new stories: National Geopraphic, CNN, Voice of America News, Environment News Service
During the bad hurricane season a few years ago they blamed President Bush for the hurricanes. Why aren't they thanking him now for stopping the hurricanes. Because they think it's all about Bush. All of this makes me more cynical, because it makes me believe more than ever, "it's all about the money". The same thing with earthquake prediction, the biggest waste of money because were never going to accomplish the task.
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